Expert Week 6 NFL Picks: Advice for Pick ’em, confidence, survivor leagues | Fantasy

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The number crunchers at TeamRankings.com are back with tips and expert analysis for your Week 6 NFL picks for pick ’em pools and survivor leagues. If you want a data-driven edge in football pools and betting, check out TeamRankings.com, where you can find advice for NFL betting picks, NFL pick ’em pool picks, and NFL survivor pool picks.

The Week 6 NFL slate looks much more lopsided than last week, which was chock full of close matchups. Five teams are currently favored by at least 9.5 points, and the public as a whole almost always overestimates big favorites.

NFL pick ’em advice, strategy

To see better results in NFL pools, every pick needs to be evaluated on a risk/reward basis, and you should always be looking for smart opportunities to go against the crowd. It might sound simple, but people often forget that the only way to win a pick ’em pool is to get some picks right that your opponents get wrong.

In last week’s article we pointed out how Baltimore was being highly underrated by the public and explained why it made sense to go with Cincinnati over Buffalo.

With that dynamic in mind, here are four games that should be on your radar this week.

Week 6 NFL Picks: Early expert predictions, analysis

Big Favorite At A Reasonable Price

Denver vs. New York Giants

Like we said in the opening, the public often gives too much respect to big favorites. Coming off a bye week, the Broncos (-11.5 spread) are not only the second-most likely team to win this week according to Vegas, but they are also the least popular pick out of the five big favorites. So, if you want to make a big upset play, you can do much better from a risk/reward standpoint than picking the Giants.

Decent Favorite With Value

New Orleans vs. Detroit

New Orleans is a solid favorite in this game (-5.5 spread, almost a 70 percent chance to win), yet just over half of the public is currently picking them. That’s a bit surprising given that the game is in New Orleans, the Saints are coming off a bye, and New Orleans has outperformed expectations in its past two games. Meanwhile, after overperforming in Weeks 1 and 2, Detroit hasn’t impressed as much recently. In short, it’s rare to see a relatively high-percentage winner like New Orleans also having value of its side.

Small Favorite At A Reasonable Price

Carolina vs. Philadelphia

In an exciting Thursday night matchup featuring two teams coming off solid wins, the public seems to be fairly valuing both the Panthers and Eagles in terms of their respective odds to win. The betting markets view these teams as roughly equal, with Carolina currently a 3.5-point favorite at home (historically home-field advantage in the NFL is worth about 3 points). As a result, in season-long pools especially, the payoff for making an upset pick with Philadelphia doesn’t make a ton of sense when better options exist (keep reading).

Underdog Value Gamble

Minnesota vs. Green Bay

The public is all over the Packers in this one, to the tune of 90-plus percent pick popularity, despite the Vikings only being a 3-point underdog. The Packers are obviously a strong team, but they’ve been impacted by injuries, and their resume so far isn’t exactly a picture of dominance. In fact, the Packers are two last-minute rallies away from being 2-3 with losses to the Bengals and Cowboys. For Minnesota, QB Case Keenum has been capable enough as injured Sam Bradford’s backup. Playing at home with nearly 40-percent win odds, the Vikings look like a strong play in pools with big upset bonuses or pools focused only on weekly prizes.

As always, it’s our duty to point out that changes in betting lines and public picking trends may have happened since this post was published, all of which could change the Week 6 landscape. To get the latest data and our full list of recommended picks for your specific pool, check out our Football Pool Picks.

WEEK 6 RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

Early Week 6 NFL Picks Advice: Survivor Pools

Last week looked fraught with peril for survivor pool players, and it more than delivered on those expectations. Overall, more than half of still-alive survivor entries nationwide were eliminated, thanks primarily to Jacksonville’s 30-9 upset of Pittsburgh (picked by almost 40 percent of survivor entries) and the Chargers victory over the Giants (seven percent picked).

For the fourth week out of five, the survivor picks we recommended to our premium customers did better than the public. In Week 5, we generally advised our customers to go heavy on the Bengals (who made up about 46 percent of our recommended picks), while largely avoiding the Steelers on account of their very high pick popularity and strong future value.

In Week 6, here are some factors to consider about the most popular picks so far:

Denver (vs. NY Giants)

The Broncos and the Texans are running neck and neck as the most popular survivor picks of Week 6. At 26-percent popularity and coming off a bye, Denver is the second-safest pick of the week according to the betting markets (after Atlanta), though our models are a bit more optimistic about Denver’s chances. On the downside, Denver has several solid matchups coming up later in the season, as they are also the most likely winner of Week 14 when they host the Jets. If you’re in a bigger pool that could last the whole season, that’s a concern.

Houston (vs. Cleveland)

Rookie QB Deshaun Watson continues to impress, and the allure of a home matchup against Cleveland has 25 percent of the public picking the Texans this week. Whether that popularity is warranted is another story, as Houston is only the fourth-safest pick of the week according to the betting markets, and the Texans also have the most future value out of the four most popular picks. A prime matchup at home against Indianapolis coming up relatively soon in Week 9 is of particular note, as Houston should be the biggest favorite of that week by a decent margin.

Atlanta (vs. Miami)

At 20-percent pick popularity, Atlanta, coming off a bye week, is the safest play of the week according to the betting markets, while our models are slightly less optimistic. The interesting thing about the Falcons is that given the dynamics of the 2017 NFL schedule, Atlanta has less future value than most people probably would think. First, this week is their most likely win for the rest of the season. Second, while the Falcons do have several other games with high win odds coming up, those games mostly come in weeks where there are other viable options as survivor picks.

Washington (vs. San Francisco)

Like Denver and Atlanta, Washington is yet another a team coming off a bye week and playing at home against a weaker opponent. However, the Redskins are not as good of a team as Denver, Houston, or Atlanta. In addition, San Francisco has come very close to upsetting several teams on the road this season, including taking both the Cardinals and Colts to overtime in Weeks 4 and 5. Those two reasons probably explain why more than 16 percent of the public isn’t on Washington this week. Nevertheless, both the betting markets and our models project this game as solidly in Washington’s favor, and the Redskins have the least future value out of the four most popular picks this week.

Together, the four teams above are drawing almost 90 percent of survivor pool entry picks in Week 6, with four other teams drawing at least one percent of public picks. That’s a high concentration of picks on the most popular teams, and in most pools, our top two-to-three ranked picks grade out closely in terms of quality. To find out which one is best for your pool, use our NFL survivor pool picks.

Finally, if you’re planning on betting some games this weekend, you can see what our models think about every game with our NFL betting picks.



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