We are three weeks into the season and are starting to see clear trend lines emerge. All teams have played home and away games, and most have been tested against a good team or two. While we can’t completely throw out the trends from last season, we can begin to shift our line of thinking when it comes to NFL DFS picks onto what is going on in the here and now.
Week 4 is unique in that it’s the first week where we don’t have a few obvious spots to attack. The Falcons and the Patriots are the largest favorites and have the highest game totals at 48.5 and 49 points, respectively. Another spot that caught my eye is the Cowboys playing at home against the Rams in a game that has a total of 46.5. The Cowboys have been under the microscope after a poor showing in Week 2 against the Broncos, but it’s important to note that they have played three straight good defenses and coming home to face the Rams is an ideal explosion spot.
Pricing is difficult this week, so I will be looking to save money at the quarterback position in cash games. Luckily for us, there are a decent amount of QBs who are priced below $6,000 and are in good positions to exceed value. For tournaments, we can obviously look toward the high total games, but I will also be targeting a few non-traditional stacks and full stacks to try to diversify my lineups from the crowd.
If you’re new to DFS (or you just need a refresher), stacking is an important strategy, and the tools over at RotoQL make it easy to find the top stacks. With floor/ceiling projections, plus correlation, value ratings and Vegas lines, RotoQL takes the guesswork out of your research. (See below)
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Week 4 NFL DFS Strategy: Best cash game stacks for DraftKings contests
*Screenshots are from RotoQL stacking tool.
QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans vs. Titans.
After taking the Patriots right down to wire last week, the Texans look to bounce back at home in a division game against the Titans. Rookie Deshaun Watson has looked pretty good in his first two starts as a pro, and what intrigues me the most about using him in cash games is the floor his rushing ability provides. The obviously choice is to pair him with is Hopkins, who is leading the NFL in targets through three weeks. The Titans remain a funnel defense who dares teams to throw against them. I expect them to stick to this formula against the rookie Watson; however, I think Watson is more than capable of winning this matchup and smashing his salary value.
RB Devonta Freeman and Falcons DST, Falcons vs. Bills
The Falcons are the second-highest favorites on the slate at -7.5pts over the Bills at home. I was burned last week by targeting C.J. Anderson against the Bills defense, but the game script is what killed the Broncos run game more so than the talent of the Bills front seven. Freeman is a beast at home and is dominating the red-zone touches over teammate Tevin Coleman. If the Falcons get out to a big lead in this one, expect them to ride Freeman deep into the second half against a Bills front that I still believe to weak. I love pairing Freeman with the Falcons defense, as the Bills should be pressed into throwing the ball late into this game. The Falcons have a great pass rush to rack up the sacks, and their secondary looks much improved with the return of Desmond Trufant.
QB Trevor Siemian and WR Demaryius Thomas, Broncos vs. Raiders
After starting the season off red hot, Siemian came crashing back down to earth with a rough showing last week in Buffalo. However, this week he returns home to face the horrendous Raiders secondary, which is a fantasy goldmine. I mentioned last week that we really want to target the passing games that are facing the Raiders, and after being dominated by Kirk Cousins and the Redskins, there is no reason to jump off that train. I’ll be pairing Siemian with DT, who remains the highest upside receiver on the team. You could easily go with Emmanuel Sanders in this spot, as well, but my gut tells me that this is a breakout spot for Demaryius, who has yet to find the end zone this season.
Week 4 Daily Fantasy Football Strategy: Best stacks for DraftKings tournaments
QB Andy Dalton, RB Joe Mixon, and WR A.J. Green, Bengals at Browns
The Bengals offense finally looked like an NFL unit last week against the Packers, and I expect them to really break out this week against the Browns. Their team total is low at only 21.5, and I believe that will keep their ownership down. The Browns just made Jacoby Brissett and the Colts look like the ’98 Rams and have been getting shredded through the air in their other games, as well. With that being said, the obviously play is to pair Dalton with Green, but I’m going to throw Mixon into that mix, as well. It’s clear that new OC Bill Lazor wants to make Mixon the bellcow back, and there aren’t many better spots for Mixon to take that job and run with it. The Bengals should gain control of this game through their passing attack and then ice it down the stretch with Mixon taking the lead share of the work in the backfield.
QB Philip Rivers and WR Tyrell Williams, Chargers vs. Eagles
Rivers and the Chargers looked abysmal last week against the Chiefs, but their passing game is in an ideal bounce-back spot against the Eagles at home. Put aside the cross-country trip for the Eagles and remember that Philadelphia has quite possibly the worst cornerback group in the NFL without Ronald Darby, who remains out. They were abused the entire second half against the Giants, and with Melvin Gordon a little banged up, I can see the Chargers looking to exploit the Eagles secondary early and often. While Kennan Allen is the obvious choice to pair with Rivers, I’m opting to go with Williams in tournaments. Williams’ price is very cheap across the industry, and he remains the Chargers best red-zone option (sorry Antonio Gates). Allen certainly has the higher floor, but Williams’ has the opportunity to 5x his salary at this price.
QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys vs. Rams
I absolutely love this spot for the Cowboys against the Rams at home, ,as this game has serious blowout potential. The Rams have been getting smashed on the ground this season, and a road matchup against the Cowboys and Zeke Elliott doesn’t bode well for them turning that around. We saw Dallas turn to some zone-option reads last week against the Cardinals, and I don’t see them going off of that this week. Prescott has enough rushing upside for me to feel comfortable not pairing him with a Dallas receiver, and this stack of Prescott/Elliott should capture every touchdown that Dallas scores.
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